Polling leaders have not always prevailed in the nation’s most competitive U.S. Senate races, raising questions about how much weight to place on this year’s narrow margins. Republicans led RealClearPolitics’ final polling averages in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania—the four Senate contests The Cook Political Report rated as toss-ups in 2022—yet Democrats ultimately won all four seats.
In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt led Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto by 3.4 percentage points in aggregator RealClearPolitics’ final average of polls, but Masto went on to win by a narrow 0.9 points. In Pennsylvania, RealClearPolitics’ final poll average showed Republican Mehmet Oz marginally ahead of Democrat John Fetterman, 47.2 to 46.8, though Fetterman won by almost 5 points, 51.2 to 46.3. Senate races in Arizona and Georgia were also rated toss-ups by Cook that year.
In both, the Democratic candidate won despite being narrowly behind in RealClearPolitics’ final polling average. Whether that pattern could recur is now a question in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas—the seven Senate races Cook rates as toss-ups in 2026. Several are separated by narrow margins in RealClearPolitics’ polling averages.
The margin looks especially narrow in Iowa, where Republican Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek by less than half a percentage point, according to RealClearPolitics’ average. Alaska is considered another particularly tight race, with Democrat Mary Peltola 1.4 points ahead of Republican incumbent Daniel Sullivan. Texas also looks to be closely divided.
Democrat James Talarico leads RealClearPolitics’ polling average in the Lone Star State by 2.5 points over Ken Paxton. RealClearPolitics’ polling averages put the Democratic candidate ahead in Kansas (by 3.6 points), Maine (3.3), Michigan (5.3) and Ohio (2.8). Joshua Dyck, a political science professor and director of the Center for Public Opinion at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, cautioned against drawing firm conclusions from narrow polling leads.
He described polls as snapshots rather than votes, adding that their underlying data can still provide useful information about a race. Dyck added that toss-up results often move in the same direction because elections are influenced by the same national political environment. Mike Traugott, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Michigan, does not expect the 2022 scenario to be repeated this year.
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