The start of the 2026 NFL season is finally here and I don't want to spoil the entire year for you, but we already know who's going to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. OK, that might be a slight exaggeration, but we did simulate the entire 2026 season with the goal of trying to figure out who's going to be walking away with the Lombardi Trophy in February. The simulation was created by our resident data scientist Stephen Oh of SportsLine.
For those of you who are not familiar with Oh's work, let me just say this: Oh is the closest thing the human race has to AI. If Oh's simulation is any indication, then we should be in for a crazy season, especially in the NFC West, where we got a huge surprise. The best part about the beginning of the season is that every team still has hope, and yes, that even includes the Cleveland Browns.
Every team is starting with a clean slate, and they'll all be hoping to end the year in Los Angeles, where Super Bowl LXI will be played. So who's going to end up playing in the first Valentine's Day Super Bowl ever? Let's get to our simulation results and find out. 1.
Baltimore Ravens (AFC North champion) Projected record: 11-6 Our simulation has the Ravens coasting to a division title in Jesse Minter's first year on the job. The Ravens are given a 60.9% chance of winning the division title, well ahead of the Bengals, who have the next-highest chance at 22.7%. Although the simulation has THREE AFC North teams finishing with winning records this year, it has only one of them making the playoffs. 2.
Houston Texans (AFC South champion)Projected record: 11-6 The Jaguars won the AFC South last season, but there will be no repeat for Jacksonville. The Texans are projected to win the division, but it is expected to be a tight race: Houston has a 47.8% chance of winning it, while the Jaguars (28%) and Colts (23.9%) are right behind. If the Texans end up winning the AFC South, it would be their third title in four years, and it would result in their fourth straight playoff appearance. 3.
Denver Broncos (AFC West champion)Projected record: 10-7 In the eyes of the oddsmakers, the Broncos definitely aren't the favorite to win the AFC West. According to most sports books, Denver has the third-best odds to win the division, but our simulation doesn't agree with that take. According to our projection, the Broncos are the favorite in the AFC West with a 47% chance of winning the division, putting them ahead of both the Chiefs (32.6%) and Chargers (20.1%). 4.
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