2027 NFL Draft: It's early, but Arch Manning hasn't looked like a first-rounder, let alone a No. 1 pick

We're only three games into Arch Manning's 2026 season at Texas, so nothing is settled. But if this start is any indication of what the next three months will look like, Manning has not resembled what we've come to expect from quarterbacks taken in the first round -- forget No. 1 overall. In fact, when you compare Manning's start to the final college seasons of the 24 quarterbacks taken in the first round from 2019-25, the gap is equal parts glaring and worrisome.

Because people get in their feelings about such things, I'll just remind you: This doesn't mean we're required to write off Manning as a first-round prospect. It does mean that the areas where we wanted to see improvement and consistency this season have instead stagnated or regressed. And when compared to recent first-round QBs, he ranks near the bottom.

This season in games against Texas State, Ohio State and UTSA, Manning is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. The median for those 24 recent first-round QBs in their final college seasons was 9.3. In fact, Daniel Jones, who was the sixth-overall pick in 2019, is the only passer in the group whose final college season was also as low as 6.8.

Here's what Manning's start looks like compared to that first-round group: The table tells a simple story: the data match what my eyes are telling me. Manning has flashed, but too many of the issues that showed up a season ago are still showing up now. And when you compare him to recent first-round passers, he's "as average as grits," to steal a phrase from our buddy, Rick Spielman.

In straightforward terms: he's well below the recent first-round baseline in a lot of the areas that matter most. And even though it's still September, it's still a troubling development because this isn't supposed to be Manning's developmental warm-up season. He threw 395 passes a year ago.

He has played in big games, started a full season in the SEC and entered 2026 with the expectation that his last name and another year of experience would all but rubber-stamp him as the first-overall pick. And it's worth acknowledging the pressure that comes with all of that. Ran Carthon made the point on our "With the First Pick" podcast that Arch is dealing with more pressure than Peyton did, and probably more than Eli, too.