This is part of an ongoing look at the 2027 quarterback class, combining my scouting reports with more than a decade of historical data. We've already looked at why this supposedly loaded class may be closer to 2025 than 2024. We'll keep checking back during the season as the tape -- and the numbers -- change.
The 2027 quarterback class has been called loaded for so long that it almost feels like we've skipped a step. Arch Manning and Dante Moore have been discussed as potential No. 1 picks. LaNorris Sellers has the physical ability NFL evaluators love.
Julian Sayin, CJ Carr and Darian Mensah are generating early-round buzz, while several others have spent time in the conversation, too. There are more recognizable names than obvious answers. The Summer Scouting that Ran Carthon and I do on the With the First Pick podcast gives us one answer.
More than a decade of historical quarterback data gives us another. And sometimes they don't agree. We've already gone deep on Moore, Manning and Jayden Maiava.
So let's get to 12 other quarterbacks who could help determine whether the 2027 class lives up to the hype. The model I've been using for this QB series is the First-Round Readiness Score -- FRED, for short. It looks at the things that have historically separated first-round quarterbacks -- passing efficiency, touchdown and interception rates, QBR, experience and, importantly, a quarterback's best three- and five-game stretches.
The scale is simple: 50 is the historical first-round threshold. Twenty-two quarterbacks in our historical sample had played enough football to reach 50 before their final college seasons. All 22 went in Round 1, including Drake Maye (78.0), Patrick Mahomes (55.7), Jaxson Dart (54.7) and Josh Allen (51.6).
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