AWS just posted its fastest growth in 18 quarters at 37%, backed by a $496 billion backlog, while Azure crossed $100 billion in annual revenue, up 41%. All three companies are burning cash to build capacity, with Amazon's free cash flow turning negative at -$8 billion after $53 billion in capex in Q2 alone. It sounds nuts, but SoFi1 is giving new Active Invest users up to $3,000 in stock for a limited time, and all it takes is a $50 deposit to get started.2 See for yourself (Sponsor) August's action shows an interesting divergence.
Mega-cap tech has cooled off the highs while institutional ownership across the biggest cloud franchises keeps grinding higher. Berkshire Hathaway's disclosure of a new 48-million-share Alphabet position is the loudest signal, but the quieter tell is in the ownership stats: institutions hold 76.36% of Microsoft, 81.17% of Alphabet, and 68.69% of Amazon. When multi-quarter capex commitments start showing up in contracted backlog, professional money tends to accumulate through the noise.
Three names stand out this month, each backed by concrete data on cloud acceleration, AI monetization, and analyst positioning. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) closed Thursday at $495.40, up 25.22% over the past month after the fiscal Q4 report. The setup here is unusual: the stock is trading roughly 3% below its 52-week high of $550.24, yet analyst positioning has firmed. 54 of 57 covering analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, with a $567.20 consensus target.
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The bull case starts with the backlog. Commercial remaining performance obligations grew 84% to $678 billion, and Azure crossed $100 billion in annual revenue, up 41%. Q4 revenue of $90 billion grew 18%, with non-GAAP EPS of $4.74.
Microsoft 365 Copilot passed 30 million paid seats, and CEO Satya Nadella noted that "Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time". At 27x trailing earnings, investors are paying a reasonable multiple for a business compounding earnings at 31.7% year over year. Risk to capex intensity is real.
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