Donald Trump has repeatedly asked voters to pretend that he is on the ballot in November’s crucial midterm elections. And in the comfortable confines of Arizona’s most affluent and fiercely contested congressional district, Trump is definitely on voters’ minds. But whether that helps or hurts the warring congressional candidates in this sun-drenched swath of suburbia, where Teslas and walled-in luxury homes dominate, depends on who you ask.
Trump’s endorsement was a “death knell”, the 82-year-old said. He plans to vote for Democrats in next week’s elections. For David McGahan, a retired accountant reveling in his retirement life in Rio Verde, a desert enclave outside Scottsdale, the economy and the country are working well under Trump.
Cushioned between blue cities and red counties, America’s suburbs have emerged nationally as political battlegrounds. That is especially true of Arizona’s first congressional district, which includes north Scottsdale and Paradise Valley. Here, among the high-end golf courses and desert estates with breathtaking mountain views, the competition between Democrat Amish Shah – an emergency room doctor who narrowly lost the seat in 2024 – and Republican Jay Feely – a former National Football League kicker backed by Trump – could help determine control of the House in November.
Since Trump’s election a decade ago, Republicans’ hold on the district has slipped, though the party still maintains a voter registration advantage. The seat is open, after the Republican congressman David Schweikert opted to not seek a ninth term. They’re business owners, hold college degrees and relatively tuned in to politics.
Given the current dissatisfaction with the Trump agenda and no incumbent with built-in name ID, Grodsky said circumstances were ripe for a change in this onetime Republican stronghold. Voters here helped deliver a slew of recent Democratic victories, including a succession of Democrats to the state’s two Senate seats, a slight tilt to Joe Biden in 2020, and a slate of top statewide officials in 2022 when voters rejected Maga-aligned candidates. But Schweikert managed to hold on, albeit narrowly.
More cracks appeared in 2024, when the ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, won nearly 25% of the district’s vote in the state’s presidential primary – even though Trump had already clinched the Republican nomination. Months later, while Trump easily won a second term from Arizona voters, the victory margin in the district was 3% compared with 5.5% statewide. The shift comes from voters like Greg Edmunds who was a Republican for most of his life, backing candidates such as McCain and George W Bush.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
