Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed has a narrow lead over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s Senate race, according to one recent poll. A Rasmussen Reports survey published Thursday found that El-Sayed was leading Rogers by three percentage points—47 percent to 44 percent. Meanwhile, 2 percent would back Lydia Christensen, the Libertarian candidate, while 1 percent said they would vote for the U.S.
Taxpayers Party’s Tim Long. Rasmussen said its survey was taken among 1,099 likely Michigan voters and was conducted via telephone and online on September 22. The margin of error was plus or minus three percentage points.
Polls provide a snapshot of opinion when they are conducted, rather than a guarantee of the election result. Polls have also tended to understate Republican support since 2016, according to Pew Research Center. Newsweek reached out to El-Sayed's and Rogers’ campaigns for comment, via email and online contact form, respectively, on Friday.
News-rating website AllSides rates Rasmussen Reports as right-leaning, a designation it says applies to sources that “moderately align with conservative, traditional, libertarian, or right-wing thought and/or policy agendas.” Earlier this week, prominent election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its rating for the Michigan Senate election in El-Sayed’s favor, moving the open race from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democratic.” It said in its update that polling has generally given El-Sayed a narrow advantage over Rogers. Among the surveys it highlighted was a Suffolk University poll showing El-Sayed ahead 47 percent to 40 percent—though it described this result as an outlier for him. A separate Washington Post/Schar School poll Sabato’s Crystal Ball cited had El-Sayed ahead by a narrower 48 percent to 45 percent.
And a New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters published Thursday also placed El-Sayed slightly ahead, with 49 percent to Rogers’ 44 percent. El-Sayed has shared several social media posts and videos over the past day, reiterating his campaign message and drawing attention to what he describes as the economic costs of the war with Iran. As of Friday afternoon, the average price of diesel in Michigan is $6.84, according to AAA, compared to a year ago when it was $3.67.
The average price for regular gas, meanwhile, is $4.76 up from $3.07 a year ago. Rogers has also issued several recent social media updates criticizing his rival, writing in one about El-Sayed, "We can't afford to trust Abdul with our kids' safety" when talking about fentanyl. El-Sayed has described his campaign as a grassroots effort, with his website saying it is funded by individuals, “not corporations and would-be oligarchs.” In July, his campaign said it raised more than $4.5 million during the second quarter and described him at the time as “the only candidate in the race not accepting corporate donations.” According to Federal Election Commission records covering January 2025 through July 15, 2026, El-Sayed’s campaign received about $14.5 million, including around $14.4 million from “individual contributions” and roughly $72,000 from other political committees.
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