Democratic hopeful Abdul El-Sayed leads in two new polls of the Michigan Senate race released on Thursday, but he holds a slimmer lead than his Democratic counterpart in the governor's race, Jocelyn Benson. The Senate race is one of the most competitive contests of the 2026 midterms and is Republicans' best chance to flip a Democratic seat. El-Sayed is running against Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman, to succeed retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters.
Although Democrats anticipate a strong national environment driven by President Donald Trump’s declining national approval rating, Republicans believe El-Sayed’s progressive record could alienate moderate voters who are key in the state that has backed the president in two of his three White House bids. A Rogers victory could hinge on independent and moderate Democrats splitting their vote and backing him despite backing Benson in the gubernatorial race over Republican Representative John James. The two new polls from Emerson College and The Washington Post suggest some of these key voters could back Rogers, or are at least remain undecided, leaving the race competitive fewer than 50 days from Election Day.
Newsweek reached out to campaign contacts for Benson, El-Sayed, James and Rogers for comment via email. El-Sayed held a 2-point lead in the Emerson poll and a 3-point lead in the poll from The Washington Post and George Mason University, while Benson held a 7-point lead in the Emerson poll and a 12-point lead in the poll from the Post. In the Emerson poll, 48 percent of respondents said they would vote for El-Sayed, while 46 percent said they would cast their ballots for Rogers.
At the same time, 49 percent said they were voting for Benson, while James’ support stood at about 42 percent. Meanwhile, El-Sayed received 48 percent support and Rogers received 45 percent in the poll from The Washington Post. The pollster showed Benson with 53 percent, and James with 41 percent support.
The Emerson poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from September 12 to September 14, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Post poll surveyed 803 likely voters from September 10 to September 14, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. The polls could underscore concerns raised by some Democrats, who earlier asked about whether El-Sayed would be a strong candidate in a state that backed Trump in the 2024 election.
El-Sayed is progressive and has received support from top Democratic socialists, including independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Democratic New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. He is known for embracing progressive policies, including Medicare for All. Some in the party have argued that a more moderate Democrat would have fared better in the state, and some of the party’s establishment rallied around Representative Haley Stevens, seen as the more moderate candidate, in the Democratic primary.
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