After three years of war, Sudan army and RSF locked in military impasse

Sudan’s war has entered its fourth year, but there is little indication the conflict will end any time soon, as the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are locked in battle for control of the North African nation. Life has gradually returned to a fragile state of near-normalcy in the capital, Khartoum, and central regions after the army regained control of the regions. However, this relative stability has been accompanied by a sense of unsettling uncertainty, as economic and living conditions continue to deteriorate, the military deadlock persists in the Kordofan region, and the humanitarian crisis in Darfur has worsened.

On the ground, the conflict has created a clear division between eastern and western Sudan, with the Sudanese army controlling the northern, central and eastern states, as well as the capital. Meanwhile, the RSF controls Darfur and large parts of the three Kordofan states, and has also opened a new front in the Blue Nile region along the border with Ethiopia. On May 20 of last year, the Sudanese army recaptured Khartoum State from the RSF forces after more than two years of fighting, marking one of the biggest military developments of the year.

Earlier, on January 11, 2025, the army also retook Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira State. It then expanded its advances by pushing RSF forces out of northern White Nile State, breaking the siege on el-Obeid in North Kordofan in February 2025, and regaining Kadugli and Dilling in South Kordofan by last February. The army retook Bara, the second-largest city in North Kordofan, in March.

Despite the army’s achievements, the RSF made significant military progress as well. Most notable is their capture of el-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, on October 26 of last year after a two-year siege. This allowed it to consolidate control over most of the region, except for three northern regions still held by the army and joint forces, as well as areas controlled by the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) armed group led by Abdel Wahid al-Nur.

Emboldened by the fall of el-Fasher, the RSF advanced towards Babnusa in West Kordofan later in December 2025. This came shortly before the army withdrew from the Heglig oil region, the country’s largest oilfield in West Kordofan, resulting in the state in effect falling under RSF control. RSF forces remain present in scattered areas of North Kordofan, including Umm Qarfah, Jabra al-Sheikh, Umm Badr, Hamra al-Sheikh, and Sodari.

They are also active in parts of South Kordofan, particularly in Al Quoz, Al-Hamadi and Al Dibibat. By the end of the third year, the conflict had spread to eastern Sudan. And with the joint force of the RSF and SPLM-North, the city of Kurmuk in Blue Nile State was captured in March of last year.