On the contrary: if Congress restricts what he can do at home, Trump is likely to show his power even more in the areas where presidents traditionally have greater freedom to act, in foreign, trade and security policy. For Europe, the most difficult two years of his second term may only be beginning now. The midterms are first and foremost a domestic reckoning.
Even while votes are still being counted, a clear swing towards the Democrats is emerging in both chambers of Congress. For Trump this is more than just a defeat for his party. This election was a referendum on his second term, on rising living costs, the consequences of his trade policy and, not least, on the Iran war.
But anyone who concludes from this that Trump will now be politically paralysed could be mistaken. His weakening at home may actually increase his willingness to take risks in foreign policy. A Congress controlled by the Democrats can block legislation, influence budget funds, set up investigative committees and bombard the administration with subpoenas.
A Democratic Senate can also hit Trump’s personnel policy where it hurts. The period of largely unhindered Republican control of government is over. And this is precisely where Europe’s problem lies.
The US system of checks and balances limits a president’s room for manoeuvre more in domestic policy than in large parts of foreign policy. If Trump keeps running into walls at home, the political incentive grows for him to shift to the stage where he can still demonstrate dominance. That would also fit his narcissistic leadership style.
Trump does not readily accept constraints as a normal part of institutional power sharing. Defeats are personalised, responsibility is pushed onto others, strength must be displayed. Foreign policy offers the ideal stage for that: presidents have considerable room to act, international crises generate maximum attention and real or perceived successes can be attributed to their own will to lead.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
