The super PAC controlled by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is sending up to $9 million to a group backing Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate race, The New York Times reported Wednesday, with the money timed to stay out of public filings until after Election Day. The Times, citing two people with knowledge of the group's plans, said the United Democracy Project (UDP) would send the money to the Great Lakes Conservatives Fund, a super PAC dedicated to supporting Rogers.
It went out after an October 14 deadline that would have required disclosure before Election Day. It's the biggest late-money move of the race, and it comes just before Michigan opens early in-person voting on Saturday. Two months ago, Rogers' allies asked AIPAC to keep its name out of the contest.
And on Wednesday, the same day the Times story broke, AIPAC announced that it will stop endorsing candidates or making direct contributions through its PAC. Rogers' Democratic opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, brought it up on the debate stage that night. While discussing Rogers' initial support for the Iran war, he cited the Times story: "But that's what you get when you have an AIPAC-backed politician." Newsweek reached out to the Rogers and El-Sayed campaigns, AIPAC and the Great Lakes Conservatives Fund for comment via email.
El-Sayed leads in nearly every recent poll, usually by a small margin. Marist's latest survey of 1,185 Michigan registered voters, taken October 15-18, found El-Sayed at 50 percent and Rogers at 48 percent among likely voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
Widen the lens to all registered voters and El-Sayed is up 7, and among independents likely to vote, he leads 50 percent to 44 percent. In September, Marist had El-Sayed ahead 51 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, so the gap has narrowed. InsiderAdvantage surveyed 1,200 likely voters October 9-10 and found El-Sayed at 48 percent, Rogers at 46 percent and 5 percent undecided.
Quantus Insights had it closer still, 48 percent to 47 percent among 744 likely voters on October 5-6. YouGov's larger sample of 3,947 likely voters showed El-Sayed ahead 49 percent to 48 percent. RealClearPolitics averages it out to El-Sayed +2.
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