Islamist extremist violence in Africa’s Sahel region is set to reach historic highs after a series of sweeping offensives by groups linked to al-Qaida and Islamic State, according to new figures compiled by the conflict monitor Acled. As the US marks the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks launched by al-Qaida against targets in Washington and New York, the statistics underline the continued expansion of the veteran organisation in parts of Africa – in stark contrast with its relative weakness elsewhere. Compiled by Acled, which stands for Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, the statistics focus on the centre of Islamic militancy in three countries – Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger – which together comprise a huge and hotly contested zone at the heart of the strategic Sahel region.
According to the respected non-profit organisation, incidents of violence with jihadist groups present in the three countries have soared from 63 in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025. So far this year, 2,145 events have already been logged. If current trends continue in coming months, an annual total of well over 3,000 events appears likely.
Though total deaths from terrorism globally have fallen to their lowest level since 2008, those in the Sahel have risen sharply. In April, a joint offensive in Mali launched by the al-Qaida-linked group Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg-dominated rebel group Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) targeted strategic towns, government forces and their Russian auxiliaries with ambushes, car bombs, drones and raids, inflicting significant casualties. Mali’s defence minister died in a suicide attack on his residence in the garrison town of Kati, 9 miles north-west of the capital, Bamako, and the head of military intelligence was killed.
Other attacks hit Mali’s international airport, while rebels seized control of the strategic city of Kidal, a former stronghold of the FLA, after soldiers fled and a force of Russian mercenaries surrendered. The defeat reversed a key symbolic victory won by the junta in Mali three years ago. Since then, JNIM has continued to expand areas under its control in Mali, killing more soldiers and Russian mercenaries in recent weeks, and broadening its operations in some neighbouring countries.
Much of the violence involves fighting with rival groups. The conflict has also included multiple killings by government armed forces and Russian mercenaries. In Burkina Faso, JNIM has claimed more than 130 attacks in 2026, striking closer to Ouagadougou, the capital.
In Niger, the group claimed at least 17 attacks but remained significantly less active than its rival Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, according to a recent United Nations report based on intelligence supplied by member states. Experts said JNIM had distanced itself from al-Qaida’s historic objectives of striking the US and its allies. Not a single attack in Europe or the US has been planned in the Sahel,” said Ulf Laessing, a senior analyst at the Konrad Adenauer foundation in Berlin.
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