For the first time in almost 20 years, Alaska appears to be leaning toward electing a Democratic Party candidate to the United States Senate, after a key indicator moved the state from a toss-up. Sabato's Crystal Ball, based out of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, moved the Alaska race to "Leans Democratic" from its previous "toss-up" ranking, while demoting South Carolina from a safe Republican seat to a likely one. The Alaska shift is notable as the last time the state looked likely to vote blue was in 2008, when Democrat Mark Begich won after incumbent GOP Senator Ted Stevens was indicted on seven felony counts before Election Day.
Tuesday's shift reflects current Democratic candidate Mary Peltola's growing lead in recent polling, despite incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan's appearances alongside President Donald Trump for a major investment announcement for the state, and a rally with Vice President JD Vance on Monday. "Alaska is impacted by the good Democratic environment just like so many other states are, and Peltola is a strong challenger,"Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told Newsweek. "Additionally, Alaska has a top-four, ranked choice voting system that wasn't in place in 2020, and the structure of the ballot (Peltola is the only Democrat) likely aids her as well." During the rally Monday night, Vance touted Sullivan's record, while accusing Democrats of being "obsessed" with Alaska.
"AOC and Kamala Harris and the rest of them. They see the Last Frontier as their last best hope to take America in a far-left direction, to impeach Donald Trump, to turn off the energy projects that we're building all across this state, and to throttle this state and this country's incredible progress," Vance said. While Sullivan's good relationship with Trump appeared to boost his reelection campaign in 2020, souring approval ratings for the president in recent months could now be a drag on the incumbent's chances of a third term.
Newsweek reached out to the Peltola and Sullivan campaigns for comment Tuesday morning via email. This is a breaking news story. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Sam Wilson.
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