For most governors who have topped popularity rankings for more than three years, reelection would look like a safe bet, but for Vermont Governor Phil Scott, holding on to his seat is getting harder, according to a new poll. A new University of New Hampshire Green Mountain State Poll, released Thursday, found the Republican governor trailing Democrat Amanda Janoo by 6 percentage points. Janoo had 49 percent support among likely voters to 43 percent for Scott.
Scott’s job approval rating has been declining in recent months,” the survey’s press release said. The poll surveyed 882 Vermont residents online September 17-21, including 835 likely general election voters. The margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to both campaigns for comment on Friday. Scott has comfortably navigated politics in what is considered a deep-blue state, winning reelection in recent years and consistently ranking among the nation’s most popular governors. But the outcome of the Democratic primary has become his biggest challenge yet to retain the seat.
The partisan breakdown shows where Scott's support has shifted. He wins 89 percent of Republicans and 53 percent of independents, but among Democrats, only 20 percent back him, while 73 percent support Janoo. In Vermont, trade appears to be one factor.
The poll was conducted after President Donald Trump's trade negotiations with Canada broke down and both countries imposed tariffs. Seventy-one percent of Vermonters disapprove of how Trump has handled the talks, while 77 percent say they are concerned about the impact on the state. As the November midterm elections approach, partisan divisions are becoming more noticeable.
Scott’s approval among Republicans has increased to 77 percent, up from 60 percent in July to its highest level. Among Democrats, however, his approval has dropped to 35 percent, the lowest recorded level. The Cook Political Report, widely considered the industry standard for nonpartisan race ratings, still rates the Vermont governor’s race as Solid Republican.
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