Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Donald Trump Jr. gained ground among voters considering potential 2028 presidential contenders in a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, while the leaders of the hypothetical Democratic and Republican fields saw their support slip. The shifts offer an early look at a 2028 race that is still taking shape, with none of the potential contenders tested in the poll having formally announced a campaign. Among Democrats, former Vice President Kamala Harris remains the leading choice at 38 percent, down 4 percentage points from August.
California Governor Gavin Newsom followed at 17 percent, while Ocasio-Cortez climbed 3 points to 12 percent. Ocasio-Cortez has not yet decided whether she will run for president in 2028, saying she plans to weigh the decision after the midterm elections. In an interview with The New York Times published last week, Ocasio-Cortez discussed the challenges of a potential presidential campaign.
Why are we pretending that this is not a factor?” Ocasio-Cortez told the Times. Trump Jr. jumped 6 points to 24 percent, followed by Marco Rubio at 17 percent. Trump Jr. has previously left open the possibility of a presidential run, but has also said he is not currently interested in running in 2028. ”I've always said, while I'll never 100% rule it out down the line, I have ZERO interest in running for office in 28 or anytime soon,” Trump Jr. wrote on X in May 2025.
The Harvard CAPS/Harris poll was conducted online from September 26 to 28, 2026, among 2,200 registered voters. The survey has a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 2.1 percentage points. Newsweek reached out to representatives for both Ocasio-Cortez and Trump Jr. via email late Tuesday.
More immediately, with just 35 days until the November election, the poll also found that 42 percent of voters have not firmly settled on their midterm choice. Twenty-six percent of those surveyed said they are leaning toward certain candidates but could still change their minds, while another 16 percent said they have not yet decided. Fifty percent said they have definitely made up their minds, according to the survey.
On the economy, voters were closely divided when asked whether the economy is better or worse than it was when Joe Biden was president. Fifty-three percent said the economy today is worse, compared with 47 percent who said it is better. Among independent voters, 61 percent said the economy is worse today than it was under Biden, while 39 percent said it is better.
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