BEIRUT — When Israeli President Isaac Herzog announces his choice for who can try to form a governing coalition on Sunday, he’ll be making a pivotal decision in a contested election that many see as Israel’s most fateful. Before Herzog are two bitter rivals: Longtime incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing Likud party versus Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the center-right Yashar party and once served as Netanyahu’s military chief of staff. As of Thursday, after days of consultations between Herzog and the parties that won a place in the 120-seat Knesset, Eisenkot appears to have the advantage.
When no party prevails in the parliament, the president — an otherwise largely ceremonial figure — selects which party can lead in forming a government. In last month’s election, Eisenkot’s opposition bloc, which includes several parties, gained 48 seats, and picked up 19 more after Arab-led parties said they will support him, for a total of 67. The Arab-led parties, which gained a record number of seats after unprecedented voter turnout by Palestinians with Israeli citizenship, are now in the unlikely position of kingmakers.
Netanyahu and his right-wing allies garnered 46 seats, Herzog said. United Torah Judaism, a party focusing on ultra-Orthodox Jews that wants to maintain a military service exemption for religious students, has traditionally supported Netanyahu, but has so far refused to support either candidate. Until a coalition is formed, Netanyahu, who has served 19 years over three tenures as prime minister, remains the head of a caretaker government.
If neither candidate succeeds in forming a government, another election must be held. Eisenkot’s numbers make clear that he should take the first stab at forming a government, Herzog said, but it was “not entirely clear” that Eisenkot will succeed given what Herzog called “the mutual vetoes between the blocs and within the blocs themselves.” Eisenkot must rely in large part on a fragile and contentious grouping of parties that have yet to prove they would be willing to work together beyond toppling Netanyahu. Key to negotiations will be the Arab-led parties, including the Joint List, a three-party alliance with 11 seats.
The Joint List rejects Zionist parties that define Israel as a Jewish state. It also calls for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as its capital. There’s also Raam, an Islamist group that takes a more practical view of Israeli politics, with eight seats.
In 2021 Raam joined an Israeli governing coalition, making it the first independent Arab party to do so. The Joint List does not plan to become part of any incoming administration. Instead, the main objective, according to Joint List head Yousef Jabareen, is clear: “We will do everything to remove the greatest threat to all of us,” he wrote on X on Thursday, “which is the continuation of the rule of Netanyahu.” But Jabareen added that the Joint List would demand the government stop race-baiting and demonizing the country’s Arab population.
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