Aston Villa preview: Can Unai Emery's side weather a return to Champions League after selling Morgan Rogers?

One of the grand old institutions of English football, Aston Villa have slowly reestablished themselves towards the top of the pyramid in recent years and, despite what they view as a financial handbrake limiting their forward momentum, go into 2026-27 ready to compete in both the Premier League and Champions League. A place in the latter competition was their reward for a glorious May night in Istanbul, Freiburg downed emphatically as Aston Villa lifted the Europa League, their first continental title since they won the European Cup and Super Cup in 1982 and their first major honors of any type in 30 years. Since then a defeat by the odd goal in three to Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain has offered hope that, even after a turbulent summer, they can compete against the best.

Would that include over a 38-game domestic season? Since returning to the top flight in 2019, fourth has been their ceiling, but at a time of upheaval across the league, there might be an opportunity to swing up the table. Villa are a proper club, proud representatives of the United Kingdom's second city of Birmingham and a club with an exceptional history dating back to the foundations of the Football League.

They have been competing for silverware since day one, perhaps then it is no wonder that they attract a certain type of august character, whether it be Hollywood royalty (Tom Hanks) or actual royalty. Prince William was among those going wild at Besiktas Stadium earlier this summer. Given the financial stratification of football, you probably shouldn't get on the Villa bandwagon if it's the biggest prizes that you're hunting.

Then again, you never know, and how sweet would it be to see this team take down some even bigger giants? Certainly, but there is a strange quality to Aston Villa's goodness. They are much, much better than their analytics would suggest they ought to be.

Since Unai Emery's appointment in October 2022, this team ranks 11th in the Premier League with a non-penalty expected goal difference (the quality of the shots they have taken versus the shots they have allowed) of almost exactly zero. In shot value terms, they are as close as the league gets to bang average. During Emery's time in charge, only Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal have accrued more points.

In general, one might expect Villa's actual results to gravitate closer to their expected goals, and there was a brief stage at the start of last season where it looked like real trouble was afoot. And yet Emery has been finding a way to get results for so long that you have to assume that there is something in this team that the xG isn't spotting. It is Aston Villa in the off-season; a lot has changed.