Q4 InP substrate price hikes topping 10%, the largest on record, are driving AXTI up 400% year to date and COHR up 8% Monday. WOLF climbs 6% Monday as a Mizuho note flags strong VR200 NVL72 ramps, adding a power-supply tailwind to the broader optics surge. NVIDIA disclosed a $3 billion stake in Coherent equal to nearly 5% of its 13F portfolio, and D.E.
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The optics complex is ripping higher in Monday's session. AXT (NASDAQ:AXTI) is up 13.71% intraday, with Coherent (NYSE:COHR) climbing 8.12%, Lumentum (NASDAQ:LITE) adding 6.79%. AXTI is now trading at $92.83, extending a run that has the stock up 399.33% year to date.
The proximate catalyst is a United Daily News report published Monday out of Taipei detailing severe undersupply in indium phosphide (InP) substrates and epitaxial wafers. Q4 price increases are brewing at more than 10%, which the report calls the largest increase on record. Earlier expectations had been for 3% to 5%.
InP substrate prices began rising in Q4 of last year and have already been raised three times, now heading for a fourth consecutive increase. Epitaxial wafers have been raised twice and are heading for a third. A supplier is quoted saying even with money, buyers may not be able to secure supply.
AXT is the natural US-listed read-through. It is a leading producer of InP substrates, and rising InP pricing flows directly to its economics. That leverage was already visible last quarter: Q2 2026 revenue hit $47.6 million, up 164% from Q2 2025, with indium phosphide revenue at $30.7 million, the highest in company history, and non-GAAP gross margin expanding to 45.0%.
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