There are solid economic grounds for the stability of the Azerbaijani manat against the US dollar until the end of 2026. The inflow of dollars generated in the country's external sector currently keeps the dollar supply strong. However, at the same time, persistently high inflation in the US and a stronger-than-expected labor market could lend renewed support to the global dollar.
This is precisely where the main question arises for the manat: to what extent can the abundance of dollars in Azerbaijan compensate for the pressure created by the appreciation of the global dollar? The indicators for the first half of 2026 show that Azerbaijan's foreign currency position is quite strong. In January–June, the country's foreign trade turnover reached $29.2 billion.
Exports amounted to $19.3 billion, while imports stood at $9.8 billion. Thus, a positive balance of approximately $9.45 billion was generated in goods trade alone. This is one of the primary sources of foreign currency entering the country.
Another source is the remittances sent to the country by Azerbaijani citizens living abroad. In the first half of 2026, approximately $748 million in remittances flowed into Azerbaijan, while $207.8 million was sent out of the country. In other words, net inflows through this channel amounted to about $540 million.
Although this figure is small compared to the trade surplus, it remains a factor positively affecting the foreign currency supply. There is also notable dynamics in foreign direct investment (FDI). In the first half of the year, $3.6 billion in foreign direct investment flowed into the country's economy, while Azerbaijani residents made $5 billion in investments abroad.
It would be incorrect to evaluate the $1.4 billion difference as a "net capital loss." This is because FDI is included in the Financial Account of the Balance of Payments—not the Current Account—and should be evaluated as an international redistribution of capital. As a result of the large positive balance in foreign trade and other income flows, a surplus of $4.7 billion was formed in the Current Account. According to the Central Bank's explanation, it was precisely this surplus in the Current Account and dedollarization in the financial sector that ensured that supply exceeded demand in the foreign exchange market.
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