Last November, Uncommon Knowledge made a tentative prediction about Venezuela. We worried that the then-rumored American intervention that did eventually remove President Nicolás Maduro could produce another refugee crisis. The article envisioned a version of Syria in America's backyard, sending Venezuelans north toward a border already transformed by years of mass migration.
The most startling fact about migration in the Americas this year is not the existence of a new caravan, but that the old ones disappeared. In the first four months, which includes President Donald Trump’s capture of Maduro in January, a mere 135 migrants were recorded making irregular transits through Panama's key Darién Gap, according to the International Organization for Migration. That was down 95 percent from the same period in 2025.
Honduras, from where the latest migrant caravan originates, was down 79 percent. By June, IOM concluded that movement through the Darién was 97 percent lower than in the first half of 2024. The inconvenient possibility—for critics of Trump, but also for Republicans when the midterms come around—is that deterrence may have changed it, and Americans therefore stopped noticing.
On the right, the explanation is simple. The border was open and the government shut it, and should be rewarded for carrying out that promise. Trump returned to office after migration had already fallen substantially, but his administration then eliminated CBP One appointments, further restricted asylum access and dramatically increased the probability that someone caught crossing illegally would be detained or removed.
The nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute found that from February through September 2025 more than 94 percent of Border Patrol encounters resulted in expedited removal, reinstatement of removal, voluntary return or transfer to ICE detention. The opposing case begins with an equally important fact: Trump did not inherit the border of December 2023. Migration had already begun falling sharply in 2024 as Mexico intensified enforcement and the Biden administration restricted asylum for people crossing between official ports of entry.
The Migration Policy Institute calculates that irregular crossings fell from about 84,000 in June 2024 to 47,000 that December. Critics also point to the costs, including humanitarian costs in transit countries, and overly aggressive, and sometimes lethal, enforcement in America itself. Enforcement is only part of the equation.
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