A year ago, Tory MPs were braced for the prospect of yet another leadership battle to topple Kemi Badenoch as the party sunk to historic lows of 14-16% in the polls. At the time, the word “November” was uttered in hushed tones – this being the decisive month when rebels would be able to mount a challenge, Badenoch having served 12 months in office. But times appear to have changed and – against the odds – the Tories have undergone what has been termed a “Keminisation”, with the leader asserting her style and authority on the party, despite its wider poor performance in the polls.
The party has crept up from the teens to the low 20s – occasionally edging ahead of Reform UK for the first time in almost two years. She is now in our approval ratings net neutral and has been net 1 or net 2. She was in the minus 30s and now only her and Burnham have positive approval.
I do think the Kemi bounce is real. People talk about her having improved and they have seen her PMQs clips.” Data from the other pollsters backs up the idea that the public is more open to Badenoch than before. James Crouch, the head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said Badenoch’s approval rating had been rising since May 2025, when she was at -27, to -3 in its latest poll.
He said that among 2024 Conservative voters she had the approval of 64%, compared with just 8% who did not approve, while of those who voted Conservative in 2019, 56% approved of her, while 16% did not. Further research from YouGov this week found four in 10 people used at least one negative term to describe the Tory leader, one of the most common themes being a perceived unpleasantness. But three in 10 included one or more positive terms in their description, strong and intelligent being the main compliments.
Some Tory MPs attribute Badenoch’s improvement over the last year to a willingness to learn and take advice on her performance. This is in spite of her having the preternatural public self-confidence to claim to the FT this weekend that she couldn’t think of any mistakes she had made, saying everyone makes them but “nothing comes to mind”. But insiders say she has listened to people warning she needs to focus more on the economy and less on culture war talking points, with the party’s conference slogan set as “Stronger economy, stronger country”.
She has also improved her prime minister’s questions appearances, partly with help on preparation from Conservative grandees such as David Cameron. Tory MPs believe a turning point for Badenoch was the defection of Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman to Reform – because their departure removed a source of destabilisation on the right, and it gave her an opportunity to show decisiveness in pushing Jenrick before he jumped. She has also been aided by the increasing questions over Nigel Farage and Reform UK’s finances, with the party’s dominance in the polls slipping.
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