Right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro will face Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a runoff election after neither candidate secured an outright majority in the first round of Brazil’s presidential vote. With nearly all ballots counted, Bolsonaro secured about 47% of the vote, ahead of Lula on roughly 45%, delivering a stronger-than-expected performance for the right-wing challenger. The two candidates will now contest the second round on October 25.
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term as president. Bolsonaro’s first-round performance defied pre-election surveys that had generally shown Lula narrowly ahead or the two candidates effectively tied. A Datafolha poll published shortly before the election, for example, had Lula leading Bolsonaro 47% to 44% in a hypothetical second-round contest. reported that Bolsonaro’s unexpectedly strong showing could also affect Brazilian financial markets, where investors have generally regarded him as the more business-friendly of the two candidates.
Speaking to journalists in Brasília following the vote, Bolsonaro welcomed the result and described it as “the end of the Workers’ Party era under Lula.” Flavio Bolsonaro is the son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted over a plot to overturn the result of the 2022 presidential election. The October 25 runoff will therefore determine whether Lula remains in power or Brazil returns to a Bolsonaro-led presidency, this time under the former president’s son. Foreign interference allegations under investigation The election has also unfolded against allegations of attempted foreign interference involving the United States.
Brazilian authorities opened an investigation after the Attorney General’s Office requested an examination of allegations concerning foreign funding and attempts to influence Brazil’s political environment and institutions. The controversy followed reporting by The Guardian that the Trump administration had redirected money from the US State Department’s Human Rights and Democracy Fund toward conservative causes internationally, including a proposed $1 million grant related to opposition to Brazil’s Supreme Court. Brazil’s Attorney General Jorge Messias subsequently called for an investigation into possible foreign interference.
The allegations form part of a broader dispute over Washington’s approach to Brazil. A group of 31 Democratic members of the US Congress had previously accused the Trump administration of engaging in what they described as an effort to interfere in and potentially undermine Brazil’s election. Federal Police Director-General Andrey Rodrigues said the matter had been referred to the force’s intelligence division for analysis as authorities continued measures intended to safeguard the integrity of the 2026 electoral process.
The investigation does not itself establish that foreign funding affected the result of Sunday’s vote. Brazilians went to the polls on October 4 not only to choose their next president but also to elect governors, senators and members of Congress. Voting proceeded largely peacefully across the country, despite isolated incidents and technical problems involving some electronic voting machines.
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