Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly both emerged Tuesday night as their parties’ nominees for Florida governor, setting up a general election that Republicans would normally expect to win comfortably. Florida has moved to the right in recent years, with President Donald Trump carrying the state by roughly 13 points in 2024 and Governor Ron DeSantis winning reelection by nearly 20 points in 2022. Republicans also hold a significant registration advantage over Democrats, and the state’s newly redrawn congressional map further strengthens the GOP.
On paper, that would make Donalds the heavy favorite. But polling suggests Jolly could make the race more competitive than Florida’s recent political history would suggest. While no Democrat has won the Florida governorship in more than 25 years, Democrats are hoping for an upset in the Sunshine State.
Donalds won his primary race with roughly 49 percent and Jolly with nearly 62 percent. Both races were called by the at 8 p.m. Speaking with CNN ahead of the results being called on Tuesday evening, Jolly said that "If the election were tonight, we would win the general election in Florida as a Democratic candidate." He added he thinks he is a strong candidate but said the "cycle is presenting an opportunity where voters are just screaming for change." Newsweek reached out to both Donalds' and Jolly's campaigns on Tuesday night after their election wins.
A University of North Florida survey last month gave Donalds a 46 percent to 41 percent advantage over Jolly, a five-point lead that is notable because it falls well short of the margins Republicans have posted in recent statewide elections. The survey shows that 5 percent said someone else, 2 percent said they would not vote, and 6 percent don't know. The race is particularly close among non-party affiliated respondents, with Donalds holding just a one-point advantage, 39 percent to 38 percent.
The poll surveyed 848 likely midterm voters in Florida from July 8 to July 17, 2026, and had a margin of error of 3.8 percent. Other polling has shown a less competitive contest, including a Targoz Market Research poll for the James Madison Institute that put Donalds ahead by 7 points. Donalds leads in the poll with 45 percent compared to Jolly's 38 percent, and 17 percent said other or were undecided.
The poll surveyed 1,026 likely voters from July 20 to July 26, 2026. A Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research survey showed Donalds also up 7 percent over Jolly, with 47 percent compared to 40 percent and roughly 7 percent undecided. The survey polled 848 likely Florida voters from March 25 to April 13, 2026, and had a margin of error of 4.1 percent.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
