Sunderland were one of the stories of the 2025-26 Premier League season. Promoted from the Championship through the play-offs in May 2025, the Black Cats marked their return to the top flight after an eight-year absence with a remarkable campaign. Tipped for relegation by many, Sunderland ended the campaign in seventh to qualify for Europe for the first time since 1973.
So why - outside newly promoted teams Hull City, Coventry and Ipswich - are Sunderland once again among the bookmakers' favourites for the drop? There are three main reasons their doubters can point to: their poor underlying numbers last season, the 'second-season syndrome' for promoted sides and a European campaign to contend with. While results and where you finish in the table are ultimately all that matter, Sunderland's underlying statistics from last season suggest repeating their success might not be so simple.
Expected goals (xG) tells us how well teams do the basics of creating lots of good chances and limiting their opponents to few low-quality ones, based on how hundreds of teams before them have scored or conceded from those opportunities. Only relegated Burnley and Wolves had a lower xG difference than Regis le Bris' side last season, while West Ham - with the fourth-worst overall xG - were also relegated. While Aston Villa and Sunderland made a mockery of xG by finishing much higher in the table, the majority of sides finished mostly in line with their underlying numbers, showing those two overachievers were more the exception that proves the rule.
Indeed, the three sides with the best xG difference finished in the top three in the same order, while - excluding Sunderland - the five sides with the worst made up the bottom five. Only Man City and Aston Villa overperformed their xG numbers by more than the Black Cats, who scored three more goals and conceded six fewer than expected given the number and quality of shots taken. So taking the season as a whole, it seems that Sunderland's performances weren't as impressive as their results.
But one event significantly affected part of the Black Cats' season: the Africa Cup of Nations. They were without six players - twice as many as any other side - during the tournament in December and January. While the club's performances had already declined after a strong start, they suffered even more when their squad was stretched.
But once all those players returned, Sunderland's underlying numbers improved throughout the rest of the season and they ended the campaign playing like a mid-table side. With no Afcon this season, the Black Cats may not suffer such a drop in performance. If they continue the 2026-27 season as they finished the last then relegation should be only a remote possibility.
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