Houthi forces have captured the whole of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, reaching all the way to the critically important Bab al-Mandeb shipping gateway, as the group’s rapid offensive continued on Friday. On Thursday, the Houthis seized the port city of Mocha, dealing a heavy blow to the Yemeni government backed by neighbouring Saudi Arabia. Analysts are calling the Iran-backed Houthi group’s victories the most significant regional development since the US and Israel declared war on Iran in February.
The offensives could be particularly damaging for Saudi Arabia and its oil exports. The Houthis, who declared a blockade of Saudi-flagged ships in the Red Sea earlier in the year, now have a much firmer control of the Bab al-Mandeb waterway, which Riyadh increasingly relies on for oil exports following blockades of the the Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Gulf, experts say. But can the Houthis control the Red Sea?
Yemen has been in a state of war since 2014 when Houthi rebels seized the capital Sanaa, as well as the port city of Hodeidah, forcing the government to step aside. With Iran’s backing, the group has since battled a Saudi-backed military coalition of Gulf states fighting on the side of the internationally recognised government of Yemen based in Aden. Saudi Arabia entered the war in 2015 in a bid to restore the Yemeni government and counter Iran’s expanding influence.
Although a UN truce in 2022 halted fighting, intermittent clashes have occurred since then. A new wave of fighting resumed last week – among the most intense in years – as the Houthis attacked positions with the aim of seizing the Red Sea coast. Yemeni government forces struck back.
In July, amidst the US-Israel war on Iran, the Houthis announced a complete maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia and began launching attacks on Saudi-linked ships passing through the important Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The narrow strait is one of the world’s most important shipping lanes connecting the Suez Canal and Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Roughly 12 percent of global trade passes through daily.
Even more vessels have used it since Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s energy supplies used to transit annually before the war began in February. The Houthis’ complete control of the Bab al-Mandeb corridor could worsen the ongoing global energy crisis as prices and supplies will increase, warn experts. For Saudi Arabia, it could further damage oil exports.
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