Across the Pacific Ocean in the United States, cattle farmers are complaining that their businesses are becoming increasingly unsustainable. And in India, poultry rearers are slashing their production targets because they cannot afford feed. More than 90 percent of the world’s population eats meat in one form or another — and a looming meat crisis threatens to affect what they buy at the market, what they cook at home, and what’s served on the table.
At the heart of this is a chain of decisions and uncertainties that consumers rarely see. A cow has to be raised for years before it can become beef. Chickens need feed, much of it tied to global grain and soya bean markets.
Farmers need land, water and weather conditions that allow them to keep animals alive and productive. When any link in this chain is disrupted, a spiralling crisis ensues. So what is putting the pressure on meat production, and what does it mean for billions of people around the world?
Brazil, the US and China are the world’s three biggest beef producers, together supplying more than half of the world’s beef. But their cattle herds are shrinking at the same time. According to a March estimate by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil’s total herd this year is estimated at 177.4 million cattle — a nearly 8 percent drop from 192.5 million in 2024.
Over in the US, cattle numbers are at a historic low. The USDA counted 86.2 million cattle and calves on farms on January 1, 2026. The number of beef cows — the females needed to produce future calves — was 27.6 million, down 1 percent from a year earlier.
The 2025 calf crop was also down 2 percent. In China, the USDA estimated a cattle head count of 94 million in January 2026, down 14 percent from 105 million in January 2024. In all three cases, beef production is also projected to be down in 2026.
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