Chinese leader Xi Jinping has invested a lot of capital in his relationship with President Donald Trump. They’ve held two summits this year and are expected to meet twice more to lock in friendlier ties. The return on investment has been so good for China that a Democratic sweep in Tuesday’s midterm elections could upset a delicate detente with the United States that has allowed Beijing to quietly advance its agenda in other parts of the world.
Not everything is going China’s way, but an agreement with the White House to forge "a constructive relationship of strategic stability" has provided much-needed ballast for Xi to steady the Chinese economy and clean house in the military a year before his own leadership is up for renewal. China won’t comment on the midterms and insists the vote is a U.S. domestic issue, but that doesn’t mean its leaders don’t have a preferred outcome. Beijing has seen Trump’s absolute hold over the Republican Party and would expect him to keep his party’s hawks in check if the GOP wins again.
The first Trump administration ended things so bitterly with Beijing and U.S. public opinion on China fell so low during the COVID-19 pandemic that it wasn’t clear relations could ever recover. But Xi has responded to Trump’s personal style of flattering leadership diplomacy with apparent enthusiasm—and it has paid off. The pomp and ceremony of back-to-back state visits in Beijing and Washington, D.C., have won over Trump and even turned the sentiments of ordinary Americans, whose views on China are softening too.
The result is two rival leaders who now rarely stand in each other’s way. Stability with China has helped Trump secure his desired interests closer to home—in Venezuela and in Greenland—while the U.S. war with Iran has become a useful distraction for Xi as his government pushes its own claims in the Indo-Pacific. China is familiar with Trump’s brand of transactional diplomacy, rooted in economic gains rather than Western values like human rights or democracy.
An America that is focused on the Western Hemisphere, ready to challenge its oldest allies, and largely indifferent to the Global South suits Beijing just fine—it’s only too happy to lead the global institutions that the U.S. no longer cares to occupy. Trump and Xi’s present pleasantries were secured at their summit in Busan, in South Korea, one year ago, when the two sides agreed to scale back an escalating tariff war in exchange for specific deliverables including a Chinese commitment to buy U.S. soybeans and reduce export controls on rare earth metals. Washington views the Busan truce through the lens of trade, but Beijing sees it as something bigger.
Chinese officials commenting on possible economic sanctions by the U.S. have repeatedly warned that any negative action would go against the personal consensus reached by the two heads of state. The clearest sign of China’s satisfaction with the new status quo was during talks in September to prolong the Busan deal before its expiration this month. Beijing’s negotiators sought a multiyear extension through late 2028—effectively the end of Trump’s presidency—but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent only approved a two-month extension to January 10.
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