Democratic Representative Chris Pappas was dealt a second polling blow against former Senator John Sununu, a Republican, in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race, a must-win for Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections. Pappas and Sununu are viewed as front-runners to win their party’s nominations next week in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in November.
Republicans see the race in the Granite State, which backed Vice President Kamala Harris by about 3 points in 2024, as a potential pickup opportunity due to the candidacy of Sununu, who held the seat from 2003 to 2009. But Democrats believe Pappas, who represents a swing district, should be well-positioned to win, particularly in a national environment fueled by voter frustration with President Donald Trump. However, two recent polls showed Sununu with a slight lead over Pappas.
Forecasters still view Democrats as having a slight edge, but the polling presents a new warning sign for Democrats as they work against a challenging map to win a Senate majority in November. Pappas’ campaign manager, Rachel Petri, wrote in a statement to Newsweek that voters “know the difference between a candidate who hides and one who fights.” “Trump’s handpicked candidate John Sununu can hide in his basement and let outside groups spend millions of dollars trying to buy him this election, but Chris Pappas is going to keep doing what he’s done from day one: show up, talk to voters, and earn their support the New Hampshire way,” Petri wrote. Newsweek also reached out to the Sununu campaign for comment via email.
The latest poll from GOP pollster Fabrizio, Lee & Associates showed the race in a statistical tie, with Sununu receiving 37 percent support and Pappas 36 percent. Other candidates received less than 4 percent support, while 23 percent were undecided about who they would vote for. The pollster surveyed 600 likely voters in New Hampshire from August 27-30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
It comes just days after a University of New Hampshire poll similarly showed Sununu with a lead, 45 percent to 43 percent. At the same time, Pappas led former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, who is also running in the GOP primary, by 5 points, 45 percent to 40 percent. It surveyed 1,878 likely voters August 20-24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.
Brown represented Massachusetts in the Senate from 2010 to 2013 but lost reelection to Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren in the solidly blue state. Pappas has represented New Hampshire’s 1st District in Congress since 2019. Sununu served as a senator in the 2000s and is part of a prominent political family in New Hampshire.
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