Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper held a 25-point lead among independent voters over Republican Michael Whatley in the latest North Carolina Senate race poll, a stark reversal from President Donald Trump’s 4-point win among the critical voting bloc in the 2024 election. The North Carolina Senate race is one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 midterm elections and is a must-win for Democrats in their efforts to flip control of the Senate in November. Cooper has established a polling edge over Whatley, who served as the chair of the Republican National Committee in the race to succeed retiring GOP Senator Thom Tillis.
The new AARP poll published on Monday showed Cooper with an 11-point overall lead and a 25-point lead among independent voters, the latest warning sign for Republicans in the Tar Heel State. Jeff Allen, Cooper’s campaign manager, told Newsweek that North Carolina “is a 50-50 state and this will be a margin-of-error race, which is why we’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them, while Michael Whatley will continue to enrich himself at their expense.” “A Democrat has not won statewide federal office here in nearly two decades—and Whatley’s elite D.C. connections mean Republicans are going to spend whatever it takes to keep this seat,” Allen said. Newsweek also reached out to Whatley’s campaign for comment via email.
Cooper received support from 53 percent of respondents in the poll, while 42 percent said they would vote for Whatley. Five percent said they were either planning to vote for another candidate or remained undecided about how they would cast their ballot. Among independent voters, Cooper held a substantial lead, getting 58 percent of the vote compared with Whatley’s 33 percent.
Nine percent were undecided or planned to vote for another candidate. The Democrat’s large lead among independents is notable because that voting bloc backed Trump in the 2024 election by about four points, 51 percent to 47 percent, according to CNN exit polling data. The voters generally viewed Cooper more favorably than Whatley and he is also better known among North Carolina voters, with 48 percent saying they view the former governor favorably and 41 percent unfavorably.
Meanwhile, Whatley’s favorability stood at 31 percent, with 37 percent viewing him unfavorably, the poll found. Among independents, Cooper had a +13 point favorability rating, while Whatley had a -20 point favorability. The AARP poll was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research.
They surveyed 1,115 likely voters from September 17 to September 20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Steven Greene, professor of political science at North Carolina State University, told Newsweek that Cooper has built a polling lead because 2026 is shaping up to be a good year for Democrats, and because Cooper is a strong candidate. I would be surprised if the gap is quite this large come election day, but that's basically a formula for a pretty sizable Cooper win,” he said.
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