Representatives of Libya’s rival political camps recently signed a landmark agreement in Tripoli, drafting a roadmap that could see presidential and legislative elections within 24 months. Mediated by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), the “4+4 committee” agreement attempts to resolve recurring legal and institutional disputes that have crippled the nation since 2011. However, in a country plagued by deep mistrust, shifting alliances, and entrenched armed factions, the path from a signed document to a unified government remains fraught with challenges.
Libya has been in a near-perpetual state of instability since a 2011 uprising toppled and killed longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi. Initially, the country showed political promise, but divisions slowly arose in the rebel camp, chiefly between factions controlling the east and west. In August 2012, the National Transitional Council officially handed over power to the newly elected General National Congress in what remains the country’s first and only peaceful transfer of power following national elections.
That fragile democratic momentum, however, quickly disintegrated into armed conflict. In May 2014, renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar took control of Benghazi and still controls the east of Libya. A divisive election later that year prompted some newly announced MPs to form the House of Representatives and relocate to the eastern city of Tobruk under Haftar’s military protection.
The political divide turned into open warfare in April 2019 when Haftar launched an unsuccessful 14-month offensive to capture the capital Tripoli, where the United Nations-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) was based. By June 2020, the front lines stabilised near the strategic central city of Sirte, leading to a formal ceasefire agreement later that year that froze military hostilities but left the underlying political fracture intact. This left Libya with two distinct authorities operating across its territory.
Tripoli is home to the internationally recognised GNA, headed by interim Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. This western-based authority includes the High Council of State – an advisory legislative body currently led by Mohammed Takala – and the Presidential Council, chaired by Mohammad al-Manfi. In Tobruk and Benghazi, political power centres on the House of Representatives, led by Speaker Aguila Saleh, which supports a parallel eastern administration.
But primary control across eastern and southern Libya is exercised by the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), commanded by Khalifa Haftar. In recent years, Haftar’s son and LNA deputy commander, Saddam Haftar, has assumed a critical role within the eastern establishment, emerging as the heir apparent, a key military commander, and a central political negotiator. Despite the 2020 ceasefire, political reunification has remained elusive due to failed international initiatives and systemic economic competition.
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