For most of his football career, the question surrounding Arch Manning was when he'd enter the NFL Draft, not whether he would be ready once he got there. But five games into the 2026 season, we're having the same conversation we had midway through 2025: should he spend another year at Texas? Coach Steve Sarkisian said in June that he "wouldn't be surprised" if Manning returned for a fifth season in 2027.
Earlier this month, uncle Eli Manning told Colin Cowherd that there's value in the college experience beyond simply preparing for the NFL, including opportunities to develop as a quarterback and leader. There has been no formal announcement, but the possibility raises a question worth exploring (again): Could one more year in college transform Manning into the top-five pick we've been hearing about, this time in the 2028 NFL Draft? He turns 23 in the spring, but despite four years in college, Manning has made just 20 career starts.
He could finish 2026 with 27-30, and another season would push him toward 40. The question then becomes: would the additional games make a meaningful difference? History offers reasons for optimism, along with some warnings.
As discussed repeatedly, Manning's physical talent isn't the problem. He has a big arm, he navigates the pocket as well as anyone in the class, can excel off-platform and is an asset in the run game. And despite the uneven performances, he's quietly one of the better deep-ball throwers in this quarterback class.
Through five games, Manning has a 93.1 PFF passing grade on throws traveling at least 20 yards, with 10 big-time throws on 24 attempts. He's completed only nine, but drops and circumstances matter. The tape routinely shows a quarterback who can throw with touch, drive and accuracy downfield.
The problems pop up elsewhere, particularly when his first read isn't available. Manning can play hurried, at times, in clean pockets. It affects his footwork, accuracy and field vision.
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