The United States is reportedly considering a significant reduction in its military presence in Europe after its allies there refused to allow Washington to use their airbases for the war on Iran. US media reported this week that senior Pentagon commanders are expected to submit plans to US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in the coming days. The news comes amid Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine and as European countries increasingly sound the alarm about possible sabotage operations on their territory; Germany accused Russia of a drone attack on an airport earlier this month.
Europe has, for decades, depended on its partnership with Washington via the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) to deter a possible Russian attack. However, relations between some European capitals and Washington have deteriorated in the past year. Here’s what we know about what options the US could be considering: The Pentagon is weighing several possible options for reducing troops and military assets in Europe as part of a NATO review it announced in June, according to NBC News, which cited security sources.
Hegseth alluded to the review at a NATO meeting in Brussels in June, when he lashed out at fellow members and said new changes would be “designed to ensure that NATO is moving fast and irreversibly toward Europe leasing and stepping up to take primary responsibility for the defence of Europe”. Hegseth said European allies’ decision not to provide US forces with access to bases in Europe to launch attacks on Iran was “shameful”. This option would largely affect soldiers stationed in Germany, Italy and Spain, NBC reported.
A second, more drastic scenario could see 40,000 soldiers exit, along with military aircraft, ships, and weapons. The US may also consider moving troops away from stations in Central or Western Europe to NATO’s eastern flank, closer to Russia. Hegseth is expected to reach a final decision by November 6, NBC reported.
About half of the 2,000 US soldiers stationed in Romania departed last year. Some 5,000 US troops are in the process of withdrawing from Germany, where more than half of the European contingent is based. The announcement of their withdrawal in May came after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticised the US’s war on Iran.
Trump threatened to go “a lot further”, but US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly blocked the White House from withdrawing as many as 25,000 soldiers at the time, according to US media. A mass exit of troops and assets would be significant for Europe as it would undermine the US’s nuclear deterrence posture on the continent, said Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund. While Russia is not likely to attack NATO members, Moscow would certainly see advantages in such a development, the analyst said.
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