As political showdowns go, this week’s gathering of Liberal Democrat MPs, billed by some as a crunch moment for Ed Davey, was a touch underwhelming. This is not, however, the entire story. There is disquiet with Davey’s patient and sometimes cautious leadership style, as shown most dramatically by the sudden resignation a week ago of Charlie Maynard, the number two in the party’s Treasury team, over concerns the Lib Dems are failing to cut through with voters.
If Maynard hoped to spark a wider revolt, it did not happen. Another was more blunt: “Charlie really has fucked it up. He has zero political nous.” The situation nonetheless remains tricky.
Davey led the Lib Dems to a century-best performance in the 2024 election, winning 72 MPs, and is safe for the foreseeable future. That said, frustrations that were already bubbling up before September’s party conference have arguably become more acute since. This is largely the result of the two policy decisions set out by Davey at the conference: a promise of £17bn in income tax cuts if the party is elected, and support for the pensions triple lock, just as Andy Burnham pledged to change it.
Both chimed explicitly with Lib Dem efforts to build momentum in the so-called blue wall of affluent home counties constituencies where the party made big gains from the Conservatives in 2024. While just about every Lib Dem MP agrees that protecting these seats and potentially winning more is vital, some worry that Davey is being so careful to not alienate former Tory voters that any distinctively liberal message has been lost. It’s like we are aping the Conservatives, while they are aping Reform.” “There are levels of nuance here,” they added.
But there are a lot of unhappy people in the party at the moment, and not just MPs. Now we have to rally around the leader, do all the Operation Big Dog stuff, and we haven’t addressed the issues about who we actually are.” Supporters of Davey argue that he is listening, but also point to the lessons of the 2019 election, where the party had a very clear national message – stop Brexit – but won just 12 seats, with a vote total higher than 2024’s but spread too thinly. But he has enormous credit built up, and people are prepared to give him the time he needs to make the changes he needs to make.” Thus far, public opposition has come from only a handful of people, also including another MP, Tom Gordon, who called Davey’s argument that the triple lock needed to be saved to protect the pensions of people currently in their 40s “downright insulting”.
Some MPs are privately unimpressed by what they view as performative complaints from, as one put it, a “small minority who feel the world fails to recognise their staggering genius”. Another said: “The plea, particularly among colleagues with small majorities, is: please think when you do these things, as it undermines us.” Another factor which protects Davey is the absence of a plan for what would come next. There are ambitious and capable MPs in the 2024 intake, but they lack experience.
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