Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith held a 6-point lead over Democrat Scott Colom in a new poll of the Senate race in Mississippi, a state that favored President Donald Trump by more than 20 points in the 2024 election. Mississippi is not ordinarily seen as a competitive state for Democrats; it’s been one of the most consistently conservative states across the country in recent elections. But Democrats like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg have signaled support for Colom, a district attorney, as the party hopes to expand the battleground.
Due to its large Black population, Mississippi has been a high-floor, low-ceiling state for Democrats; they regularly receive more than 40 percent of the vote in the Magnolia State but have struggled to win a majority due to its intense racial polarization. But Democrats hope that a favorable environment, as well as a possible surge in Black turnout across the South, could make this race more competitive than expected. Jake Monssen, Hyde-Smith’s campaign manager, told Newsweek the poll was “partisan” and “fielded to produce the headlines and fundraising appeals they wanted.” He said that with the “resources and organization” that campaign has, voters will “hear the truth” about Colom.
We will not let up until the polls close on November 3, and we are confident Senator Hyde-Smith will once again earn the support of a majority of Mississippi voters,” he said. Colom wrote in a statement provided to Newsweek that the poll "makes clear that when Mississippians hear about both of us, I win." The new poll from Data for Progress, a left-leaning polling firm, suggested the race could be more competitive than expected for such a red-leaning state. Hyde-Smith held a 6-point lead over Colom, 44 percent to 38 percent, with independent candidate Ty Pinkins receiving an additional 7 percent of the vote.
She held onto that 6-point lead in a scenario without Pinkins on the ballot, leading Colom 47 percent to 41 percent, according to the poll, which surveyed 1,018 likely voters from August 5 to August 15. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll found that Hyde-Smith is not viewed particularly well in the state, with a net favorability rating of -10 points.
Fifty percent of respondents said they viewed her unfavorably, while 40 percent viewed her favorably. Colom had a stronger net favorability rating but was much less known in the state, with 28 percent of respondents saying they view him favorably and 15 percent unfavorably, according to the poll. President Donald Trump, however, is still viewed positively in the state, although by a narrow margin, with 51 percent viewing him favorably compared to 47 percent unfavorably.
On the informed ballot, when respondents heard a short biography about each candidate, Colom and Hyde-Smith were tied at 40 percent. Mississippi is generally not considered a competitive state, and Republicans have enjoyed a strong advantage there. Trump performed especially well there in 2024, winning 60.9 percent of the vote compared to former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 38 percent.
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