More Americans are identifying as Democratic than at any time since the first years of the Obama administration, less than a month before the midterm elections. The latest quarterly poll from Gallup shows 50 percent of Americans asked either said they were a Democrat or leaned that way, compared to 39 percent for the Republican Party. The share of those on the left has been steadily rising since the end of 2024, while the number of those saying they were Republican or Republican-leaning has fallen.
The result for the Democratic Party is potentially surprising, with the party having struggled to win voters over in other national polling in recent months, and it remains to be seen if this overall sentiment is transferred to results in November. "The party lean category is a good indicator of vote intentions," Stephen Ansolabehere, professor of government at Harvard University, told Newsweek on Monday. "Generally, when it’s a good year for a party the proportion of people who lean in the direction of the eventual winner of the election goes up in October and November.
Come January or February that category returns to its original levels." A Democratic National Committee spokesperson said in a statement to Newsweek, “All across the country, Americans are rejecting Trump and Republicans’ toxic agenda of sky high prices, rampant corruption, and endless chaos. Heading into the election, Democrats are confident, but not complacent. We are all gas, no brakes to reach every voter, expand the map, and win up and down the ballot this November.” Meanwhile, Republican National Press Secretary Natalie Baldassarre told Newsweek: “National polls always underestimate support for Republicans and liberal rags like Newsweek always take the bait.
Republicans are united in exposing the far-left's extreme agenda and will leave it all on the table to defy history in November." Party affiliation, like politics more widely, had been ever-changing, but with the two parties still holding most of the power in U.S. Congress, where Americans fall even if they consider themselves independent matters. In the last quarter of 2024, in the wake of the presidential election that saw President Donald Trump reelected to the White House, Republicans led the Gallup polling with 47 percent compared to 43 percent identifying as Democratic.
The lead did not last very long, with the parties being tied the next quarter. More Americans have been identifying as Democratic or leaning that way in the months since, leading up to the 50 percent figure seen in Monday's poll. The last time the Democratic side of the poll was as high was in 2009, during Obama's first term in the White House.
The numbers do become more nuanced when including independents, who currently sit at 45 percent, but Democrats sit at 5 points higher than Republicans, at 30 percent, in the latest survey. Gallup carries out the survey every quarter, with the latest conducted among a random sample of 3,000 U.S. adults age 18 and older, living across all 50 states and Washington, D.C., with a +2 percent margin of error. While the poll is a likely morale boost for the Democratic National Committee, history can offer a warning to the party, with polls that underestimated Republicans in key states leading to surprise GOP victories.
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