Democrats have gained ground in their bid to take control of the Senate this November, according to a leading election forecast. Polling guru Nate Silver’s model gave the party a 58.6 percent chance of winning the chamber on September 14, up from 50.6 percent on September 6. Recent polling in Texas, Ohio and Michigan helped drive the shift, improving Democrats’ prospects of erasing the Republican Party’s 53-47 Senate majority.
Newsweek reached out to every campaign mentioned in this article via email for comment on Tuesday morning. Winning four Republican-held seats while protecting every Democratic-held seat remains an uphill battle. And a 50-50 Senate would still leave Republicans with effective control because Vice President JD Vance could break tied votes.
Silver’s latest update therefore changes the identity of the narrow favorite, not the underlying reality that a small number of close races could decide the chamber. The Silver Bulletin said its September 14 movement followed what it described as an excellent week of polling for Democrats. Texas produced the clearest change: the three latest surveys Silver cited showed Democratic state Representative James Talarico leading Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton by 2 to 5 points.
An N+ Univision/YouGov poll found Talarico ahead 48 percent to 43 percent. YouGov surveyed 1,000 registered Texas voters from August 27 to September 4, and the poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. A separate AARP survey conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research put Talarico ahead 48 percent to 44 percent.
That poll questioned 895 likely voters from August 30 to September 1 and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. InsiderAdvantage subsequently showed a narrower contest, with Talarico on 47 percent and Paxton on 46 percent. Its mixed-mode panel and text survey, conducted between September 8 and 9, covered 1,200 likely voters, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
No individual result establishes a clear leader because each Democratic advantage is either within or close to the relevant margin of error. Collectively, however, the polls provide additional evidence for a forecast model that the traditionally Republican state has become competitive. Ohio provides Democrats with another possible pickup opportunity.
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