The Democratic Party has high expectations as it heads into these pivotal US midterm elections. A historically unpopular Republican president, an American public unhappy with the rising costs of food and bills, and months of favourable polls point to a good night for them on Tuesday. Democratic candidates lead in well over the 218 seats needed to flip control of the lower chamber of Congress, the House of Representatives, the polls suggest.
And they are tied or narrowly ahead in the key Senate races. A recent New York Times poll had the Senate race in South Carolina, a state Donald Trump won by 18 percentage points in 2024, as a tie. Recent CNN surveys put the Democrats ahead in Texas, Kansas and Maine.
Recent US political history is littered with examples where public opinion polls, even ones just days before an election, were off the mark. Trump outperformed predictions on his way to White House victories in 2016 and 2024. His narrow defeat in 2020 came after most surveys indicated a more comfortable win for Democrat Joe Biden.
Earlier this year, polls suggested Democrat Abdul El-Sayed was poised for a double-digit win in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary. In Wisconsin's Democratic primary for governor, the candidate that had a polling lead that approached 20 points lost by a fraction of a percent. Democrats have an identity crisis - it won't be an easy fix According to Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs, which conducts political and market research surveys, polling has become difficult in recent years because it's harder to reach Americans as they abandon their land lines and screen their calls.
And many of those who pollsters do contact have become less willing to participate. "Conservatives, especially those on the far right, are much more anti-establishment by nature," Young says. "And they don't participate in anything.
That's the challenge." If Republican voters are being undercounted in a systematic way, and polling companies don't take that into consideration when constructing their voting models, it could skew their data towards the Democrats. That's one of the reasons why it has become trickier for pollsters to predict what the electorate will look like. IN DEPTH: The real reasons there are so few young US politicians EXPLORE: Where the US midterms will be won and lost VERIFY: How the US economy is really doing under Trump NEWSLETTER: mp overperformed in previous presidential elections is that his supporters – many of whom were not regular voters – flocked to the polls in higher-than-expected numbers.
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