📲 Get the latest on the midterms & more in the NPR App Democrats retain significant midterm electoral advantages, with key data pointing to them being the favorites to win control of the U.S. But, there are indications of why a potential wave could be limited, a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds. The poll also sheds light on the issues driving voters across the ideological spectrum.
The cost of living continues to be top of mind overall with a third of people saying they've experienced financial hardship in the past year and 4 in 10 saying their personal finances have gotten worse. "The economy is at the top of my list right now," said Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old from Arizona who participated in the poll. He's an independent who leans toward Democrats and said high food and gas prices are a strain.
"They're too expensive for everybody, no matter who you voted for," he said. "They're just too expensive for the American people in general, and I don't like that." Preserving democracy also continues to resonate with Democrats and independents, while immigration is the biggest concern for self-described MAGA supporters. The poll of 1,289 registered voters was conducted Oct. 19-20.
When registered voters are mentioned, the margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. When likely voters are mentioned, it is +/- 3.8 points. This was the first survey this cycle that Marist applied a likely voter screen, and on multiple questions, likely voters were — within the margin of error — slightly less likely than registered voters to disapprove of the president.
Likely voters overall were also slightly less likely to want Democrats to run Congress. Likely voters are something of a special sauce in polling. Survey researchers apply various metrics — like levels of enthusiasm, past voting history and how important voting is to different respondents — to try to identify the subsample of people who are most likely to vote.
In this survey, just 38% of registered voters approved of the job President Trump is doing, with 61% disapproving (-23). Likely voters gave him a 40% to 59% rating (-19), still not very good, but even a slight margin can make a difference in how significant the gains either party might make in the election are. That said, an equal share — 53% — of registered and likely voters said they "strongly disapprove" of the job Trump is doing, tied with last month as the highest ever in the poll.
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