Democrats have moved narrowly ahead of Republicans on which party Americans trust to handle the economy, their first lead in NBC News polling since December 2017. The shift comes weeks before the November midterms, when prices and household finances are likely to influence closely fought congressional races. Candidates in both parties must now appeal to voters dissatisfied with the economy but skeptical of both Democrats and Republicans.
Republicans have traditionally enjoyed an economic advantage, including a 21-point lead in the NBC News series three years ago. That edge has disappeared as most voters say Trump’s policies have hurt the economy, although the latest one-point Democratic lead is within the poll’s margin of error. The latest NBC News survey shows that Republicans’ longstanding advantage on the economy has effectively disappeared, leaving the parties level in statistical terms and Democrats fractionally ahead.
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from September 11 to 15 through telephone interviews and an online survey distributed by text message. Public Opinion Strategies, led by Republican pollster Bill McInturff, conducted the survey with the Democratic firm Hart Research Associates. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, meaning the current difference between Democrats and the GOP is not statistically decisive.
Even so, the longer movement is substantial. Republicans were favored 49-28 percent on economic trust three years earlier, while recent surveys in the series had placed the parties roughly level. Democrats led by seven points on which party voters trusted to control rising prices, an issue closely connected to Americans’ everyday assessment of the economy.
Fifty-five percent of respondents said Trump’s policies had hurt the economy. Twenty-six percent believed they had helped, while 18 percent said they had made little difference. The negative figure had risen from 48 percent in March.
At a comparable stage before the 2018 midterms, 41 percent said Trump’s policies had helped the economy and 26 percent said they had caused harm. Those findings accompanied weaker assessments of the president overall. Some of Trump’s economic proposals also appear to face resistance from voters.
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