Earlier today I set you a new twist on the Monty Hall problem, which is (according to AI) the most discussed recreational maths puzzle in history. The standard Monty Hall problem is as follows: You are a contestant on the US game show Let’s Make a Deal. Monty Hall, the host, asks you to choose one of three doors.
Behind one door is a car. Behind the other two are goats. To win the car, which is what you want, you must choose the correct door.
Before your chosen door is opened, however, Monty Hall opens one of the other two doors that he knows has a goat behind it. He opens the door and it reveals a goat. He now offers you chance to switch your choice to the other door.
Do you stick, or do you switch? The answer is that it makes sense to switch, because you double your odds of winning from 1/3 to 2/3. The puzzle is the subject of debate because the intuitive answer is that switching should not make any difference.
You are a contestant playing the Monty Hall problem. However, you secretly know one of the goats is the former pet of an eccentric billionaire who lost it and is willing to pay an enormous amount for its return, way more than the car is worth. You really want that goat.
The host is unaware of this. After you pick your door, as is traditional, the host opens one door, which he knows doesn’t have the car. He reveals a goat, which you can tell is the ordinary goat and not the secretly valuable one.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
