President Donald Trump’s approval rating among very conservative Americans fell from 84 percent in July to 76 percent in September, according to a new Marquette Law School Poll. The 8-point movement could signal frustration within the president’s most ideologically aligned constituency ahead of the midterms, when motivation can be as important as persuasion, although two political scientists told Newsweek that the small subgroup demands caution. Grant Reeher, a political-science professor at Syracuse University, identified the Iran war and household financial pressure as possible explanations for the shift.
Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, said weak ratings on inflation, the economy, and gasoline prices suggested dissatisfaction with results rather than an ideological break. The Republican National Committee (RNC), meanwhile, has rejected the suggestion that the results point toward a broader weakening of conservative support. "Polls serve as a snapshot in time, not a crystal ball, and Newsweek’s attempt to cherry-pick data to manufacture Republican collapse is lazy spin," Natalie Baldassarre, the RNC’s national press secretary, told Newsweek.
She went on to say that "the same poll shows conservative voter enthusiasm continues to grow, especially as we’re coming off our Republican Convention that further energized our base, touted the president’s achievements, and exposed the Democrats’ far-left agenda to tens of millions of people." A comparison of the July and September polls partly supports the RNC’s argument: reported voting likelihood increased among very conservative respondents, while the broader measure of enthusiasm declined. Very conservative voters form part of the dependable electoral base Republicans need to turn out in a midterm election. Losing approval is not the same as losing their votes, but reduced motivation within a strongly supportive group could make close congressional races harder for GOP candidates.
Marquette’s September cross tabs found that among very conservative Americans, Trump’s net approval, calculated by subtracting disapproval from approval, fell 16 points from plus 68 in July to plus 52 in September, meaning approval still exceeded disapproval by 52 points but by a substantially narrower margin. It does not mean that 8 percent of the same people changed their minds because the surveys interviewed different samples. Some 110 respondents made up the very conservative subgroup in September, meaning its margin of error is substantially larger than the one reported for the full national sample.
"I would interpret the eight-point movement cautiously," Panagopoulos told Newsweek. "A single subgroup shift can reflect sampling variability; it becomes much more meaningful if it persists across multiple polls." Reeher made the same methodological point: "Margins of error among that group for a yes-no response are larger than the change tracked. That doesn’t mean there isn’t something there, but I wouldn’t go to the bank on it." The wider survey nevertheless provides possible explanations worth watching.
Economic assessments, for example, were particularly weak. Approval stood at 19 percent for his handling of inflation and the cost of living, 20 percent for gasoline prices and 28 percent for the economy. And inflation’s prominence as the public’s leading concern gives those ratings added political weight.
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