President Donald Trump’s net approval rating improved by double digits among five demographics between two national polls conducted in August, although he remains underwater in each one. Two August Economist/YouGov surveys showed Trump’s net approval (those who approve minus those who disapprove) improving by more than 10 points among the voter groups. It comes ahead of the November midterm elections, when the president’s standing could influence Republican candidates competing for control of Congress.
Independents registered the largest change, while Black voters, college graduates and two age groups also became less negative toward Trump. The comparison offers a potentially encouraging signal for Republicans at a consequential point in the election calendar. It is not yet evidence of a lasting recovery, especially because subgroup estimates are less precise than results from the full national samples.
The shifts among the five groups did, however, coincide with an improvement in Trump’s overall standing. His net job approval moved from minus 29 in the August 7-10 poll, when 33 percent approved and 62 percent disapproved, to minus 21 in the August 21-24 survey, when approval stood at 36 percent and disapproval at 57 percent. Presidential approval can shape the political environment for congressional candidates, making any sustained improvement potentially useful to Republicans before voters choose the next Congress.
The movement affects groups extending beyond Trump’s core Republican coalition, but the results do not show that he has won majority approval from any of them. Trump’s net approval among independents improved by 16 points, moving from minus 53 in the August 7-10 poll to minus 37 in the August 21-24 survey. That was the largest change among the five groups.
Independents remain a politically important audience because they are not formally aligned with either major party, although the polling comparison does not show how many are likely to vote or which candidates they may support in November. Black adults recorded the most negative result in both surveys, but their net rating moved from minus 66 to minus 53, an improvement of 13 points. College graduates shifted by the same amount, from minus 42 to minus 29.
Among adults ages 18-29, net approval rose from minus 41 to minus 29, a 12-point change. Respondents ages 45-64 were the least negative of the five groups. Their rating moved from minus 25 to minus 14, an 11-point improvement.
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