The economic numbers aren't necessarily bad - but the public mood is. It's a disconnect that haunted Joe Biden in 2024, when solid headline data failed to convince many voters that the economy was working for them. Now, Donald Trump faces a version of the same challenge.
During the 2024 campaign, Trump promised voters swift relief from rising prices. "When I win, I will immediately bring prices down," he said. Delivering on that promise has proved harder than expected.
Economic growth is holding up, unemployment remains low and the stock market is near record highs. Yet the final inflation report ahead of the midterm elections confirms what voters already know: prices remain high. The causes are different.
Biden was grappling with the aftermath of the Covid pandemic. Trump faces higher energy prices linked to the US-Israel conflict with Iran and the fallout from some of his own trade and immigration policies. The political reality, however, is much the same.
Voters are not judging the economy by GDP figures or record highs on the stock market. They are judging it by what they pay at the supermarket, petrol prices and whether they can keep up with the bills. US economic growth of 2.2% would be respectable by the standards of many wealthy economies.
Germany, for example, has struggled to generate comparable momentum. And a stable US unemployment rate of 4.2% hardly suggests an economy in freefall. Trump argues that he inherited an economic mess from Biden, and points to strong growth, investment and stock market performance as evidence that his policies are working.
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