The final inflation report voters will see before the 2026 midterms showed prices rose at an even faster pace than expected in September, another blow for President Donald Trump and Republicans as they confront significant headwinds in an election heavily focused on affordability. According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday morning, consumer prices rose 0.6 percent in September, compared to 0.4 percent the month prior. On an annual basis, headline inflation hastened to 3.7 percent from 3.4 percent.
The 12-month rate came in slightly faster analyst forecasts 3.6 percent and, outside of May and April, was at its highest level since September 2023. The BLS said that energy was once again a leading driver of gains. The index rose by 5.2 percent in September—with gasoline up 9.1 percent—and accounted for over half of the overall increases last month.
Core inflation—which strips out the more volatile food and energy categories—came in at 0.3 percent and 2.6 percent on a monthly and annual basis, respectively. This compares with 0.3 percent and 2.4 percent in August, and forecasts of 0.2 percent and 2.5 percent. The next CPI will be released on November 10, meaning Wednesday’s was the final reading ahead of Election Day on November 3—which polls indicate will be heavily influenced by voters’ views of the economy.
Some 37 percent of Americans told the Economist and YouGov pollsters that inflation was the most important issue for them in this year’s elections—beating out all other choices and marking the highest share for rising prices since tracking began in 2022. In the survey of 1,381 registered voters—conducted October 2 to 5—jobs and the economy came in second at 12 percent, followed by health care (8 percent) and immigration (7 percent). Surveyed voters have routinely picked soaring prices as their top election issue, a concerning signal for the administration and Trump’s party given their downbeat feelings about the topic.
The University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment index showed that assessments of current economic conditions slipped to a record-low of 44.7 in October from 50.9 in September. Just 21 percent of those polled by Pew Research Center between September 28 and October 4 rated the economy as either excellent or good, with 37 percent describing conditions as fair and 42 percent as “poor.” Nearly three-quarters (73 percent) said they were “very concerned” about the price of food and other consumer goods, rising to 74 percent when it came to the cost of gasoline and energy. An AP-NORC poll of 2,140 adults—fielded September 24 to 28—found that 65 percent lay the blame for stubborn inflation at Trump’s feet, with 26 percent approving of his wider economic stewardship and only 17 percent of his approach to the cost of living.
This level of blame for higher costs rises to 78 percent in the latest /Ipsos poll of 4,506 American adults. Sixty-eight percent of respondents said they were dissatisfied with Trump’s handling of inflation, and 57 percent of polled Republicans said that prices were rising at a faster rate than their wages.
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