This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: The summers of recent years have been hot, but not unusual from a meteorological perspective. According to researchers at Leipzig University, though, the next extreme summer would far exceed anything we have experienced so far.
To be prepared for this, it is important to understand what a "summer of the century" might look like in the current climate. This is precisely what researchers at Leipzig University have investigated in a new study. They found that late summer is now warming significantly more than early summer and that the soil tends to be drier than in previous summers.
"As a result, there is now a longer period in late summer during which favorable weather conditions, combined with very dry soil, can lead to extreme and prolonged heat," says the study's lead author, Dr. Peter Pfleiderer from the Institute for Meteorology at Leipzig University, summarizing one of the study's findings. It has just been published in the journal Earth's Future.
Through their analysis of "summers of the century," the researchers show that the changes generally expected in summer are even more pronounced during these rare, extreme summers. At the same time, the increase in temperatures in European summers is greater than in other parts of the world. The study shows just how intense prolonged heat waves can become in the current climate and how people, local authorities and society as a whole should adapt.
In the preindustrial climate (1850 to 1900), summers were very warm throughout the entire season, as Pfleiderer says. The researchers found that "summers of the century" in today's climate could start off relatively cool and then remain consistently very hot throughout mid- and late summer. "We also show that, both for summers in general and for extreme and rare summers, hot days tend to occur more frequently in the current climate, thereby increasing the likelihood of prolonged heat waves," explains the climate researcher.
Extreme heat is closely linked to dry soil. When favorable weather conditions cause a region to warm, some of the energy is used for the evaporation of water. However, once the ground is dry, the energy is converted solely into heat that can be felt, and temperatures can rise dramatically.
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