Three weeks from Election Day, deep frustration over an economy that feels unworkable for Americans at most every level, from farmers to truckers to consumers, has expanded the map of competitive electoral contests into areas that seemed safely Republican just a couple of months ago. Sustained high prices are putting at risk some of the constituencies, states and congressional districts that President Trump and Republicans won decisively in 2024. The widespread discontent has prompted candidates, parties and major G.O.P. fund-raising groups to shift their messages and ad spending in crucial races to try to move voters in the final days of the midterm campaign.
With control of the House, Senate and the vast majority of the country’s governor’s offices and legislatures at stake, Republicans are examining their own deteriorating internal polling, along with their experiences with voters, and say they are reassessing their odds and triaging the map. On Friday, for example, the leading Senate Republican super PAC began to plunge another $30 million into advertising in Texas to try to save the state’s Senate seat for Ken Paxton, the Republican attorney general. Several races that are likely to determine the overall outcome on Election Day — the Maine and Michigan Senate elections, for example — remain tight.
Control of the chamber could easily boil down to one or two of these razor-thin contests. Still, Republican baggage is piling up, regionally and nationally. Trump is facing backlash to mass deportations in South Texas and South Florida.
His party is bracing for anger at expanding data centers in states including Ohio and Michigan. In big farming states, record diesel prices have arrived just in time for harvest season. In colder northern states, spiking heating oil costs loom for families.
Trump announced $90 payouts for millions of seniors on Medicare, and on Friday began sending$500 rebate checks he had promised for some Affordable Care Act customers. He has also promised a $5,000 check for every adult U.S. citizen if his party retains control of Congress. This week, in Nebraska — a typically solidly Republican state — Mr.
Trump announced an executive order to loosen restrictions on the use of tax-free diesel on the roads. Trump said he would allow Russian diesel imports after years of sanctions, in an attempt to lower prices. Trump’s unpopularity over his handling of the economy — one of his biggest strengths when he ran two years ago — is driving Republican troubles in a nationalized political environment.
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