The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has maintained its forecast for Azerbaijan's average oil production in 2026 at 550,000 barrels per day (bpd), while raising its expectations for output in the final two quarters of the year. The latest projections were published in the EIA's October edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook. According to the updated forecast, Azerbaijan's oil production is expected to average 550,000 bpd in 2026, unchanged from the estimate published by the agency in September.
The EIA, however, revised its quarterly forecasts for the second half of the year upward. Azerbaijan is now expected to produce an average of 550,000 bpd in both the third and fourth quarters of 2026. In its September outlook, the EIA had projected production of 540,000 bpd for each of those quarters.
The latest forecast therefore represents an upward revision of 10,000 bpd for both periods. Despite the stronger expectations for the second half of the year, the agency left its full-year production forecast unchanged at 550,000 bpd. Looking ahead to 2027, the EIA expects Azerbaijan's output to increase gradually over the course of the year.
Production is projected at 570,000 bpd in both the first and second quarters of 2027, before rising to 580,000 bpd in the third quarter and 590,000 bpd in the final three months of the year. The quarterly projections suggest the EIA expects a recovery in Azerbaijan's liquid hydrocarbon production following the lower levels forecast for 2026. According to EIA data, Azerbaijan produced an average of approximately 570,000 barrels per day of liquid hydrocarbons in 2025.
On that basis, the agency's 2026 forecast of 550,000 bpd would represent a year-on-year decline of around 20,000 barrels per day, or approximately 3.5%. The projected increase during 2027 would subsequently bring production back towards, and eventually above, the levels recorded in 2025. Here we are to serve you with news right now.
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