This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Australia's farm sector currently faces a double whammy from weather and nonweather-related factors: a confirmed El Niño effect and surging inflationary pressures. The Bureau of Meteorology says a strong El Niño is underway in late spring and into summer in Australia.
This week, it said, "Models indicate the current event is likely to become the strongest El Niño event on record, with reliable records dating back to 1950." The research division of the Department of Agriculture, known as ABARES, says the current El Niño could lead to lower spring rainfall in parts of Australia, but the impacts are uncertain. These events have coincided with nonweather factors such as rising fuel and fertilizer prices caused by conflict in the Middle East and ongoing inflationary pressure in the economy. So, how will these various pressures affect food prices in the coming months?
Fruits and vegetables that are part of the regular diet of many households are likely to be affected, but to varying degrees. Consumers could see lower availability and higher prices for some vegetables, such as leafy greens, peas, broccoli and cauliflower, later in the year. On the other hand, due to drier growing conditions, greater supply of citrus, apples and stone fruits is likely.
Consumers may find greater availability of peaches, nectarines and plums in markets. The appearance of vegetables and fruits can be affected by extreme heat and sun exposure, potentially reducing their visual appeal. But product quality is unaffected, a point the industry has been keen to promote with sales of "imperfect" fruit and vegetables.
In eastern and southern parts of Australia, winter and spring rainfall is likely to be lower due to El Niño, leading to a fall in pasture production. For cattle and sheep producers, lower pasture availability can force them to use feed supplements or reduce stock numbers. If many producers attempt to sell livestock at the same time, livestock prices can come under pressure.
A dry spring, therefore, can lead to repercussions beyond the season itself. ABARES forecasts for winter crop production (mainly wheat, barley and canola) in 2026–27 provide a mixed picture. Output is forecast to fall by between 16% and 44% in Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia due to below-average rainfall.
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