This year is set to rank among the four hottest years on record with elevated temperatures persisting into 2027 because of an unusually powerful El Niño, a new U.N. climate report has found. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report, released on the first day of COP31 on Monday, found the global average surface temperature from January to September was about 2.65°F (1.47°C) above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. The past 12 years have each ranked among the hottest on record, with 2023 through 2026 occupying the top four spots.
The WMO said higher temperatures are creating pressure on global water resources, with freshwater stored in groundwater, rivers, reservoirs, glaciers and snow continuing a decade-long decline. In addition, the current El Niño is expected to continue into early 2027 and boost annual global mean temperatures. U.N. officials forecast El Niño will act as a risk multiplier for health.
This is because increased heat, drought and heavy rainfall can contribute to heat-related illness and mortality. The World Health Organization (WHO) has, for the first time, classified the anticipated health impacts of extreme heat and the record-breaking El Niño as a health emergency. Alicia White, founder of Project Petals, a United Nations Environment Programme told Newsweek: "The decision to treat El Niño’s expected health impacts as a health emergency is critical for American cities because low-income neighborhoods are the ones that experience the brunt of heat-related illnesses, decline in good air quality, and rising energy bills." White, whose work focuses on climate resilience in underresourced communities across New York City, continued by explaining that local health systems and community organizations will absorb the largest brunt of adverse effects.
The natural weather pattern is adding to human-caused climate change. El Niño has been intensifying since August and is expected to be the strongest on record by December. "El Niño and indeed the state of the global climate in 2026 gives new meaning to the phrase off the charts," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said.
"El Niño doesn't add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release.
"We are supercharging our weather and El Niño will be a risk multiplier. Heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rainstorms are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for. "Hundreds of millions of people this year have been exposed to unbearable extreme heat, while the catastrophic ice and rock collapse and flash floods in Nepal highlighted the compound risks facing communities in fragile, warming high-mountain terrain." Saulo told reporters in Geneva the world should prepare for another record-breaking year in 2027.
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