El Nino will intensify even more before peaking in December, the United Nations said Thursday, warning it could be among the strongest witnessed since at least 1950. The naturally occurring weather phenomenonis set to bring higher temperatures to much of the planet, the UN's weather and climate agency said, with its impact compounding the effects of man-made climate change. Read moreRare train of cyclones fuelled by historic El Nino make their way across Pacific "El Nino will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December," the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update.
"It is likely to bring above-average temperatures to much of the globe and shift rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drought and floods in different regions." El Nino warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months. Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral conditions in between.
"Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to increase to record levels during October-November-December 2026, reflecting the strengthening of the El Nino event which will drive weather patterns and impact economies, ecosystems and communities across the globe," the WMO said. The forecast is based on consensus across 13 leading national and international meteorological centres. "El Nino is firmly established and strengthening rapidly," said WMO chief Celeste Saulo.
"WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 percent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950." Saulo explained that El Nino does not add new heat to the planet, but releases heat being stored in the ocean. "The ocean it's drawing from is the warmest we've ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release," she said.
El Nino: Climate scientists warn of "Godzilla-level" climate event To display this content from YouTube, you must enable advertisement tracking and audience measurement. One of your browser extensions seems to be blocking the video player from loading. To watch this content, you may need to disable it on this site.
The index which measures sea surface temperature anomalies across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific– the region at the heart of El Nino– increased from 1.6C above normal in June to 2.5C above normal in August. For October-November-December, the anomaly is forecast to reach approximately 3.7C above normal. This would be the highest since observations began, eclipsing the previous record of 2.6C set in 2015-2016.
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